What If: The Archive

The Ghost of Trotsky: Mexico and the Struggle for Latin America (1950–1965)

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by

Derrick Zhou
in ,

Leon Trotsky’s death in the U.S. bombing of Mexico City (March 7, 1950) marked the collapse of the Mexican Workers’ and Peasants’ Republic—but it did not mark the end of its legacy. Instead, Trotskyist resistance went underground, Latin America became the first Cold War battleground, and the U.S. struggled to contain the very revolution it thought it had crushed.

By 1965, Mexico was still reeling from its communist past, while Trotsky’s name became a symbol of defiance across the world. The battle between revolutionary socialism and American imperialism was far from over.

The U.S. Occupation and the Reign of the Mexican Junta (1950–1956)

The Invasion and the Fall of Revolutionary Mexico (1950)

After Trotsky’s death, the U.S. launched a full-scale invasion of Mexico.

  • By April 1950, American tanks rolled into Mexico City, facing only scattered resistance from communist holdouts.
  • The Mexican Red Army, now leaderless, fought in the mountains and jungles but lacked coordination. By June 1950, organized resistance had collapsed.
  • On July 4, 1950, U.S. General George S. Patton Jr. (who had retired in our timeline but was kept in service in this alternate history) raised the American flag over the Zócalo, marking the official defeat of Trotskyist Mexico.

The American-Backed Military Junta (1950–1956)

With Mexico under U.S. occupation, Washington installed a right-wing military junta led by General Manuel Ávila Camacho, the former president who had fled during Trotsky’s revolution.

  • The Mexican Junta (1950–1956) ruled under martial law, banning communism, executing Trotskyist leaders, and purging the education system of leftist ideology.
  • The U.S. Military controlled the economy, privatizing industries that had been nationalized under Trotsky. American oil companies, including Standard Oil and Texaco, returned to exploit Mexico’s vast petroleum reserves.
  • The “Americanization” of Mexico saw Hollywood films replacing Soviet propaganda, English being taught in schools, and Mexico’s foreign policy aligning completely with U.S. interests.

But beneath the surface, Trotsky’s revolution refused to die.

The Trotskyist Resistance and the Second Mexican Revolution (1956–1960)

The Return of the Red Army (1956)

After six years of brutal military rule, Mexico exploded into a second revolution.

The Mexican Liberation Front (Frente de Liberación Mexicana, FLM), a coalition of Trotskyist guerrillas, radical students, and Indigenous rebels, launched a nationwide insurgency against the U.S.-backed junta.

  • The FLM was led by Raúl Castro Zamora, a former Trotskyist militia commander who had fled to the jungles of Chiapas after the U.S. invasion.
  • Inspired by Mao’s guerilla warfare in China and Fidel Castro’s revolution in Cuba, the FLM waged a relentless insurgency, sabotaging railways, assassinating government officials, and attacking U.S. military convoys.
  • By 1957, the Mexican countryside was in chaos, and U.S. forces were bogged down in a brutal counterinsurgency war.

The U.S. Struggles to Hold Mexico (1958)

By 1958, the Second Mexican Revolution had turned into “America’s Vietnam”—years before Vietnam itself.

  • The Mexican Liberation Front expanded, launching bold attacks on U.S. bases in Veracruz, Monterrey, and Tijuana.
  • U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower, worried about the Cold War in Europe and the growing Soviet influence in Africa, wanted out of Mexico.
  • The American public, exhausted from World War II and now watching another war unfold in Mexico, pressured Eisenhower to withdraw.

By 1959, the U.S. agreed to a compromise: withdrawal in exchange for a stable anti-communist government.

The Third Mexican Republic (1960–1965): A Fragile Peace

A New Government, But the Same Struggles

In 1960, after the last U.S. troops left, Mexico established the Third Mexican Republic, a fragile democracy under President Adolfo López Mateos, a moderate nationalist.

  • The new government promised social reforms but avoided radical socialism to prevent another U.S. intervention.
  • American corporations maintained influence over Mexico’s oil and mining industries, fueling resentment among leftist groups.
  • The Trotskyist FLM refused to disarm, continuing a low-level insurgency in rural areas.

Trotsky’s Legacy in Latin America

Despite its failure in Mexico, Trotskyism spread like wildfire across Latin America.

  • Cuba (1959): Fidel Castro, inspired by Trotsky’s revolution, defeated Batista’s regime and established a socialist state—but unlike in our timeline, it was Trotskyist, not Stalinist.
  • Argentina (1963): Workers’ uprisings led to the rise of the Argentine Socialist Republic, aligned with Cuba and Mexico’s radical left.
  • Colombia (1964): The FLM helped organize Marxist guerrilla groups, leading to decades of insurgency.

By 1965, Latin America had become a battleground between Trotskyist revolutionaries, American-backed dictators, and Soviet influence.

Mexico had survived—but its war was far from over.

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