What If: The Archive

The Shadow Returns: Soviet Geopolitics in the 1990s

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by

Derrick Zhou
in ,

🌍 Geopolitics of the 1990s under Gromov’s USSR (1991–2001)

🧭 Eastern Europe: The Return of the Shadow

By 1991, most of the Eastern Bloc had already begun transitioning away from Soviet-style Communism—Poland held free elections in 1989, Hungary opened its borders, and Czechoslovakia had the Velvet Revolution. The coup’s success in Moscow didn’t reverse these events overnight—but it drastically changed the regional trajectory.

🚩 USSR’s Strategy

Gromov understood he couldn’t openly reconquer these nations militarily (not yet), but he deployed subversion, espionage, and economic coercion. The USSR’s main goal became stopping NATO expansion and creating internal instability in the post-Communist regimes.

Key Developments:

  • Poland & Hungary (1991–1995): Faced targeted disinformation, economic pressure through gas and oil pricing, and support for Communist or nationalist splinter parties. Gromov’s VUGB also armed far-left militant cells. Warsaw and Budapest leaned heavily on Western aid and NATO assurances, though NATO was politically hesitant to provoke Moscow.
  • Czechoslovakia (1992): The Velvet Divorce still occurred, but in this timeline, Slovakia retained closer economic and political ties to the USSR through energy dependency. The Czech Republic veered West.
  • Baltic States: The Baltic republics (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), which had declared independence in 1990–1991, were never recognized as independent by the restored USSR. Gromov’s regime waged a brutal hybrid campaign:
    • Russian-speaking populations in Latvia and Estonia were encouraged to resist.
    • Soviet “volunteers” infiltrated to stage bombings and street protests in Riga and Tallinn.
    • By 1997, Estonia had declared a state of emergency after a pro-Soviet militia seized part of Narva.
  • Moldova (1995–1999): A pro-Russian coup backed by VUGB succeeded in 1997, creating the Moldovan People’s Republic, a Soviet-aligned puppet state, with Transnistria serving as its core power base.

🇺🇸 Relations with the United States: Collapse of Détente, Rise of the Neo-Cold War

The 1990 START I Treaty (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty)

Gorbachev had signed it in 1991 just months before the coup. Initially, Gromov’s junta pretended to honor it—but once consolidated, Gromov froze verification mechanisms in 1994 and restarted certain missile production lines.

  • By 1996, US intelligence detected secret rearmament of the Soviet strategic missile forces, especially mobile ICBMs.
  • The U.S., under President Al Gore from 1999, formally suspended START implementation and initiated missile defense development, triggering a renewed arms race.

Diplomatic Relations

The U.S. initially hoped for negotiation with the junta. However:

  • Yeltsin’s death alienated Washington.
  • Gromov’s crackdown on reformists and refusal to allow OSCE observers into Soviet republics ended most diplomatic pretense.
  • By 1999, direct military-to-military channels were severed, and both sides resumed patrolling near each other’s airspace and sea lanes.

🇨🇳 USSR-China Relations: A Wary Authoritarian Brotherhood

China under Deng Xiaoping had suppressed Tiananmen in 1989, but unlike Gromov’s USSR, China pursued economic reform while tightening political control.

Key Differences:

  • Economic System: China embraced “socialism with Chinese characteristics.” Gromov viewed this as capitalist corruption.
  • Ideology: The USSR became more orthodox, Stalinist-Maoist in rhetoric, while China was pragmatically nationalist.

Relations:

  • 1991–1995: Cautious cooperation. The two exchanged intelligence and anti-Western ideological statements. China avoided criticizing Gromov’s terror campaign.
  • 1996–2000: Mistrust grew. Border fortifications increased, and both sides competed for influence in Central Asia.
  • Nevertheless, the USSR and China signed a “Non-Aggression and Socialist Friendship Pact” in 1998 to counterbalance U.S. power, mostly symbolic.

🇰🇵 North Korea: Saved from Starvation—at a Price

After the collapse of the USSR in our timeline, North Korea suffered devastating famine. In this alternate world, Soviet aid resumed by 1992 under Gromov.

Outcome:

  • Pyongyang became a Soviet client once more. Soviet military advisors returned to the Korean Peninsula.
  • A joint Soviet-Korean research station was built near the DMZ for “peaceful military technology.”
  • The famine was severely reduced, though not entirely averted. In return, Kim Jong Il publicly declared his loyalty to Moscow, sidelining Beijing.
  • North Korea began mirroring Soviet ideological language, calling for a “new global front against capitalism.”

🇨🇺 Cuba: The Return of the Red Caribbean

Cuba had been economically adrift after the Soviet collapse—but in this timeline, Gromov saw Fidel Castro as a valuable ideological ally and symbolic partner.

Developments:

  • 1992: The USSR reestablished a full military presence in Cuba, including reopening the Lourdes signals intelligence facility.
  • 1993–1995: Cuba received emergency food and fuel shipments, forestalling an economic collapse.
  • 1996: Soviet naval vessels began porting in Havana again. The U.S. Navy responded by reactivating parts of its Caribbean fleet.
  • 1997: A Cuban-Soviet Youth Exchange Program was launched, bringing Latin American communists to the USSR for training.

Castro, emboldened, declared in 1998 that “Socialism has returned to the Americas!”

🔥 Global Summary (1991–2001)

Region/NationUSSR’s Relationship
Eastern EuropeCovert destabilization, political subversion, energy blackmail.
United StatesCold hostility, strategic arms race reignited.
ChinaUneasy ideological brothers, wary of each other.
North KoreaLoyal client state, rescued from collapse.
CubaFully reintegrated into Soviet strategic orbit.
Western Europe (NATO)Increasingly nervous, but politically divided. Germany and France urged caution; UK and Scandinavia pushed for rearmament.
Middle EastUSSR backed Ba’athist Syria and anti-Western regimes again. Soviet advisors returned to Iraq in 1999.
Africa & Latin AmericaRenewed Soviet interest in sponsoring socialist movements. Angola, Nicaragua, and Venezuela reestablished ties.

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